On October 24, residents of Tehran took to the streets, holding images of Hezbollah leader Nasrallah and Hamas leader Sinwar, both killed by Israeli forces, as they protested against Israel. The New York Times commented on the dilemma facing Tehran after Israel launched retaliatory strikes on October 26, questioning whether Iran would respond.
If Iran chooses to retaliate, tensions are certain to escalate further. Amid economic challenges and military vulnerabilities, the situation within the country could deteriorate even more. However, failing to act might lead allies and hardliners at home to perceive Iran as too weak.
Since the outbreak of the conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza in January 2023, Iran has already been deeply involved in this regional war. Israel’s strategy has been to target key members of Iran’s axis, including Hezbollah, the Houthi movement in Yemen, and their allies in Syria and Iraq.
These allies and proxies form Iran’s “forward defense” against Israel, and any significant weakening of their capabilities equates to a direct blow to Iran itself.
As leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah have been successively eliminated by Israeli actions, Iran faces pressure to retaliate. Yet, Iranian officials have clearly stated their desire to avoid a direct confrontation with Israel.
Prior to Israel’s attack on October 26, Tehran had already begun a series of diplomatic efforts, partly through secret channels, hoping to persuade the U.S. to restrain Israel and prevent further escalation of the conflict.
Following the Israeli strikes, Tehran noticeably downplayed the impact, continuing regular programming on television without immediate promises of significant retaliation, merely reaffirming its right to do so.
Iran is currently grappling with severe economic challenges, leading to a cautious stance regarding a long-term, costly war with Israel. Domestic price hikes and strict governance have sparked significant dissent among the populace, which undoubtedly influences the decision on how to respond.
Analysts quoted by the New York Times suggest that this is one reason why Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei allowed moderate Masoud Pezeshkian to succeed hardliner Ebrahim Raisi after Raisi’s tragic helicopter crash.
Of course, there is ample justification for Iran to escalate tensions, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps often advocates for a stronger response. Both Israel and Iran yearn to restore deterrence, believing it can only be achieved through retaliatory strikes.
However, Washington and Tel Aviv hope that the conflict with Iran will remain “a shadow war rather than a public confrontation,” with the ultimate outcome being control over hostilities rather than a cessation of animosity.
