In a recent interview with CNN, Dan Smith, the director of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), emphasized that 2024 is shaping up to be a dark year for global peace and suggested that the Norwegian Nobel Committee should consider withholding this year’s Peace Prize.
Since the inception of the Nobel Peace Prize in 1901, there have been 19 instances of no award being given, including during both World Wars, with the last occurrence in 1972 during the Vietnam War. Smith pointed out that, in addition to conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, fighting is intensifying in Ukraine, Sudan, West Africa, Haiti, Myanmar, and beyond.
“Since the end of the Cold War in 1989, the scale of fighting and killing has reached unprecedented levels,” Smith noted. “We need to focus more energy and attention on these conflicts and wars.”
He suggested that the Committee might consider leaving this year’s award vacant to highlight the shortcomings of global politics at this moment, conveying a message that international institutions, which are supposed to uphold world order, appear to be powerless. He argued that despite many deserving candidates for the Peace Prize, a decision to not award it this year would send a very strong message.
Smith asserted that given the severity of global issues, it might be time to acknowledge, “Yes, many people are working very hard, but it’s not enough. We need more individuals and world leaders to wake up and realize we are in an extremely perilous situation.” Currently, there are over 50 armed conflicts around the world, and the lethality of these conflicts has significantly increased over the past two decades.
According to data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program, there were 59 armed conflicts worldwide last year, nearly double the number from 2009.
The list of nominees for this year’s Peace Prize includes 197 individuals and 89 organizations, amidst nearly three years of ongoing war in Ukraine, the widening conflict in the Middle East, climate crisis concerns, and the civil war in Sudan resulting in famine and displacing over 10 million people. Earlier predictions from bookmakers suggested that the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) and UN Secretary-General António Guterres might be strong contenders for the prize.
Experts have noted that predicting this year’s Peace Prize winner is more challenging than ever. However, the Norwegian Nobel Committee stated that actions supporting peace may be more significant this year than in the past. Committee Secretary Olav Njølstad stated that given the current state of the world, maintaining optimism is difficult, noting that while peace efforts seem stagnant, there are indeed people and organizations doing remarkable work.
