Getty ImagesWarnings of a “painful” Budget tend to mean hefty tax rises are looming.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves claims she needs to find £22bn to mend a "black hole" in the public purse.
At the same time, she is pledging to end austerity and spend money on things like hospitals and roads, which are crucial to boosting growth.
So how can she pull off both without big tax hikes?
Reeves is expected to have a trick up her sleeve.
It's centred on the government's self-imposed borrowing limits. This hack won’t do away with tax rises – but could limit their scale.
Why do we need borrowing rules?In the UK, the government has decided to stick to the current so-called fiscal rule that debt – the total amount the government owes – must fall in five years’ time.
Almost all rich countries have some form of these rules, to maintain credibility with financial markets and taxpayers.
That’s crucial. In nine out of 10 years, the UK has run a deficit – the difference between money coming in and going out – with the shortfall usually matched by borrowing on those markets. The less credible the rules or the plans to meet them, the higher the borrowing costs.
Liz Truss’s 2022 mini-Budget was a prime example of the price of lost credibility. Her failure to provide plans for how her government would fund the biggest tax cuts in half a century, and a lack of independent vetting of those plans, caused borrowing costs to soar. And so too did the cost of new fixed-rate mortgage deals – which are also linked to those markets.
Rachel Reeves' debt hackThe chancellor sets his or her own rules. However, it’s up to the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) to mark their homework and assess the impact on the public finances.
Ahead of the general election, Reeves said she’d broadly replicate the rules set by her predecessor Jeremy Hunt. At the time of his March Budget, the OBR forecast he’d meet the rules with very little cash to spare.
Reeves is expected to dodge some of that squeeze by changing the definition of debt. There are many options.
One is to change how the operations of the Bank of England are treated. In the pandemic, the Bank put funds into the system by buying long term investments known as bonds to boost the economy. As it sells those again, it’s incurring losses due to higher interest rates.
A different definition of debt, which treats those losses differently or omits them altogether, could allow the chancellor to say debt is falling more rapidly in five years' time than on the current measure – giving her at least £16bn more to spend.
