On October 18, 2023, the Shanghai Maritime Safety Administration announced the release of the “Shanghai Port International Container Ship Departure and Arrival Safety and Timeliness Forecast Index” during an event supported by the Yangshan Port Maritime Bureau and the Shanghai International Shipping Research Center at Shanghai Maritime University. This index is a groundbreaking development for the global shipping industry.
The index serves as a comprehensive indicator that reflects the punctuality and safety of international container ships entering and leaving the port. It combines the safety and punctuality forecasts from the Yangshan Port Safety Punctuality Index and the Waigaoqiao Safety Punctuality Index. The safety punctuality index itself is divided into two components: the punctuality forecast index, which assesses whether vessels arrive on time, and the safety forecast index, which evaluates various factors such as navigational capacity in port channels, weather conditions, and ship traffic.
The methodology for developing this index is scientifically grounded and effective. It incorporates literature review, experiential insights, expert discussions, and big data analysis, focusing on data from the past decade regarding the punctuality of ships operating in and out of Shanghai Port, as well as accident risk data. This information is analyzed across four dimensions: environment, vessels, navigation, and management, to construct a Nowcasting model that can assess and forecast the safety and punctuality of maritime operations.
Furthermore, the Yangshan Port Maritime Bureau has established information-sharing channels with the Pudong Maritime Bureau and the Wusong Maritime Bureau to ensure the reliability, stability, and continuity of the data needed for index calculations.
Having maintained its position as the world’s busiest port for container throughput for 14 consecutive years, Shanghai Port has witnessed a rapid increase in the number of vessels coming in and out, leading to significant challenges in maritime traffic management and port operations—challenges that are unparalleled globally.
The Shanghai Maritime Safety Administration is exploring a practical mechanism for the daily release of this forecast index to provide a clearer understanding of the port’s safety and operational status. This will allow for early identification of potential safety risks and provide a scientific basis for decision-making, ensuring maritime safety. The forecast index not only aims to enhance Shanghai Port’s core competitiveness and optimize the business environment but also serves as essential data support for port operators in managing operations and recognizing potential risks, ultimately aiding maritime regulatory authorities in making informed and precise decisions.
